The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have misshaped key oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future international oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the prospective to throw federal governments' long-lasting planning into mayhem.
Whatever the truth, rising long term worldwide demands seem certain to overtake production in the next years, specifically given the high and increasing expenses of establishing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a situation, ingredients and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing rates drive this innovation to the forefront, among the richest prospective production areas has been absolutely overlooked by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and relatively scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mainly prevented their ability to capitalize increasing global energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly dependent for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased requirement to produce winter electrical power has actually led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the farming of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these 3 downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has become a significant producer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government officials, offered the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower extent Astana for those durable investors prepared to bet on the future, particularly as a plant native to the area has actually currently shown itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies already examining how to produce it in industrial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's functional performance capability and prospective business viability.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it a particularly great livestock feed candidate that is recently acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least three millennia to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can produce problems in germination to attain an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's capacity could permit Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the nation's efforts at agrarian reform given that attaining independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric industry. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise purchased by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-sufficient in cotton
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Central Asia's Vast Biofuel Opportunity
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